If melting polar ice doesn’t make you take climate change seriously, then how about the rising cost of chocolate? Those in the candy biz are forecasting a global chocolate shortage, brought on by rising consumption in developing countries, a decline in cocoa output due to adverse growing conditions, and the clamor for cocoa-intense dark chocolate among discerning consumers. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.
According to a study by Euromonitor International cited in the Boston Globe, chocolate prices in the United States are forecasted to rise 45 percent in 2014 over 2012 prices. In September 2013 chocolate reached an all-time high of $12.25 a kilogram, itself a 45 percent increase over 2007 prices. While consumers can expect to pay more for their candy bars, manufacturers may also change their ingredients to keep costs down. They may substitute less expensive—and more problematic—ingredients for those that are hard to come by. Palm oil instead of cocoa butter may be a common solution. The problem with this is that palm oil is high in saturated fats, the kind that’s bad for you and raises your cholesterol. Artificial additives and fillers are likely to make up a larger percentage of the ingredients of lower-quality chocolate products. Caveat emptor, purists.
What’s Behind the Low Production?
Cacao trees, i.e., Theobroma cacao, like the Coffea plant responsible for our favorite caffeinated beverage, are grown in monoculture situations, mostly by subsistence farmers who don’t have the resources to invest in the fertilizers and other crop enhancements that will protect their crops and raise their yields. Impoverished Ivory Coast produces 40 percent of the world’s cocoa, with Nigeria, Cameroon, Ghana, and Indonesia bringing up the rear. In Ivory Coast specifically, lack of rain in the past several seasons has led to a lower than normal harvest and thus higher prices.
Even under optimal growing conditions, many cacao farmers also lack the knowledge of sustainable growing practices and pest management techniques that are common to monoculture elsewhere. Thus, their cacao beans are susceptible to pests and disease, including a nasty condition called witches’ broom.
Though recent price hikes are due to demand and short-term bad weather, the big picture remains grim. Farmers in Indonesia have been clear-cutting forests to grow palm trees and harvest palm oil which has led to the habitat destruction of the orangutan (among other species of plants and animals), and many farmers in Ivory Coast have switched from cacao to rubber farming because it provides higher and more stable returns. In the long run, however, climate change may wreak havoc on the industry. The ideal conditions for growing the cacao plant are narrow, which explains why most of the world’s cacao comes from a few countries. Moving production to other areas isn’t the greatest idea, says Rachel Cernansky of Treehugger: “the ideal conditions for cocoa-growing will shift to higher altitudes—but most of West Africa is relatively flat, so there is not a lot of land at higher elevation to move to. But even where there is higher land, establishing new cocoa-producing areas could trigger the clearing of forests and important habitats for flora and fauna. Which means, yes, exacerbating climate change even further.”
But beleaguered cacao farmers aren’t entirely on their own. Researchers from the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), led by Peter Laderach, have assessed likely future scenarios using conservative climate models and summarized their findings in their 2011 report Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Cocoa-Growing Regions in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire.
Here’s the color-coded version of what they found:
The resolution on these maps is poor, but you get the idea: The amount of green from the first image to the second declines drastically. That’s a warning cry for action to prevent the decline of an important commodity. Doing nothing would be bad for business, and hardly an option for corporations like Nestle, Mars, and Hershey, whose continued success depends on a robust cocoa industry.
The report’s recommendations are hardly earth-shattering: It suggests that farmers adopt drought-resistant varieties of plants and install irrigation systems; provide shade to plants; actively prevent bushfires; and diversify their crops with plants that will adapt to the changing environment, including oranges, cashews, and the dreaded oil palm. The researchers also recommend that scientists concentrate on developing drought-tolerant cocoa and become active in helping nations develop sound agricultural policy. Finally, the researchers suggest that governments extend credit to cocoa farmers that will enable them to implement changes in their practices to promote sustainability.
As usual, the headlines are eye-catching—”Global Chocolate Crisis Looms“—but the solution is much more mundane. Just about every commodity these days has entered a “crisis” phase, which in the end is nothing more than the enactment of the law of supply and demand.
Kathy Wilson Peacock is a writer, editor, nature lover, and flaneur of the zeitgeist. She favors science over superstition and believes that knowledge is the best super power. Favorite secret weapon: A library card.